September 19, 2023

📰 News Organizations

• Instacart Prices IPO at $30 a Share, at Top End of Expectations. The pricing sets the stage for the San Francisco-based company to start trading Tuesday on the Nasdaq exchange under the symbol CART.

• Klaviyo Raises Ipo Price Range, Aiming For $9 Billion Valuation. The marketing automation company estimated in the filing that its IPO price will fall between $27 and $29, up from the $25 to $27 range it previously estimated.
  

• Microsoft Product Chief Is Exiting, in Blow to Hardware Unit. Panos Panay will stay long enough to help his replacements transition into the role, Rajesh Jha, executive vice president of the experiences and devices group, announced in an email to employees on Monday.

• Bond Market at Risk of Third Annual Loss Needs a Dot-Plot Rescue. Federal Reserve policymakers’ updated forecasts for their benchmark interest rate, due Wednesday, are looming as a key potential decider for a US Treasuries market at risk of a third straight year of losses.

• Dollar Hovers Near 6-month High Before Key Central Bank Decisions. The U.S. dollar hovered near a six-month high on Monday as traders looked ahead to interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan this week.

• Citi debuts service on blockchains for institutional clients. The banking giant introduced Citi Token Services on Monday, which will tokenize clients’ deposits so they can be sent anywhere in the world instantly.

• Stocks in Tight Range With Oil Close to 95 Dollars. The S&P 500 edged higher. Energy producers climbed, while airlines fell as oil extended a rally driven by resilient demand and supply curbs from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Apple Inc. led gains in megacaps.

🐦 Twitter

• Homebuyers in the new home market aren't getting cold feet. August's national new home sales cancelation rate remains at just 10%. Slightly different story in the resale market as noted by Redfin recently, which we're also hearing in our monthly survey of resale agents. Source.
  

• The US Housing Market Index moved back below 50 in September, indicating a sharp decline in homebuilder confidence. Rising mortgage rates have crushed affordability and consumer demand. 32% of builders reported cutting home prices in September, up from 25% in August. Source.
  

• American workers are striking at a pace not seen in nearly a quarter-century. Last month, large stoppages from strikes resulted in 4.1 million missed days of work, the biggest monthly total since August 2000: Labor Department data. Source.

• Apple thoughts: All participants should be paying attention. The market failed to be impressed by the new iPhone lineup. It is crucial to underscore that Apple holds substantial weight in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Source.
  

• If inflation reverts to the 2-2.5% zone and stays there, there is no need for a positive term premium. But if inflation remains structurally elevated at 3-4% and the term premium goes back to positive territory, long Treasuries could well benefit. Source.

📓 Online Publications

• Builder Confidence Decreased in September. Builder confidence for newly built single-family homes in September fell five points to 45. Persistently high mortgage rates above 7% continue to erode builder confidence, as sentiment levels have dropped below the key level of 50.
  

• Nikola Stock Soared With New COO. Nikola's new COO has an automotive as well as technical background. The appointment comes just as the company is about to ship its hydrogen fuel cell trucks to customers.

• American Households Can Weather a Recession. Unless the economy shifts into another gear and overheats in the coming years, U.S. household balance sheets are in a pretty good place to weather a mild recession.

• Production Slowdowns are Making a Luxury Item Out of Diesel. The cuts by OPEC+ nations Saudi Arabia and Russia are putting pressure on industries like aviation, trucking, and shipping -- sectors that rely on jet fuel, diesel, and heavy fuel oil.

🎧 Podcasts

• Elon Musk is Winning the UAW Strike. Tesla already had a cost advantage over Detroit-based rivals due to streamlined manufacturing and lower wages for non-unionized workers. With the ongoing UAW strike potentially leading to higher wages, Tesla's edge will increase further. Source(1:45)
  

• Rishi Sunak Decides Against Attending UN General Assembly. This comes at a time when Sunak’s government is being accused of watering down key environmental pledges to signal to the electorate that he’s not going to pander to the green lobby and make them pay more. Source(5:50)

• Instacart Raises IPO Price Range After Success of Arm Listing. Another week, another tech IPO. This all comes after Arm’s blockbuster listing last week. Investor demand for shares in the British chip designer has made people optimistic about a resurgence in the IPO market. Source(4:42)

• Fed Rate Decision & Oil Discussion. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, expected to remain unchanged, will be accompanied by Jerome Powell's press conference, where the possibility of future rate hikes will be discussed. The conversation is likely to include discussions about oil and fuel prices. Source(20:24)